Ahmadinejad's no dummy
I've written about Iran and President Ahmadinejad before, but I have had a couple of recent thoughts about him, particularly in light of the ramping-up of the US military (some call it "he largest military armada since WWII" - reference), and the unchanging fact that Iran has almost twice as much oil as Iraq (reference: the CIA world factbook), but is also a nuclear threat.
While the President of Iran does spew some pretty abhorrent antisemitic rhetoric, it seems to me that he's also pretty bright, and because I don't think it's always wise to throw the baby out with the bathwater, I would like us to consider for a moment: if I knew that my country was next in line for possible invasion by the world's strongest country, possibly the smartest thing I could do would be to escalate my production of nuclear materials, being as forthright about it as possible, so that there can be no mistaking by anyone that I do have nukes and I have no intention of dismantling them. By comparison, Iraq clearly did not have nuclear weapons at the time the US invaded (though this was their trumped-up premise for invasion), and that was a bloody (literally) cakewalk for the States.
Hand-in-hand with brandishing my weapons, I would also work very hard to be seen as unhinged and dangerous. See, you might threaten a country who had nukes if you thought it would lead to negotiation - as it did with the Russians - thereby ultimately getting what you wanted in the first place, but if you worry that the person you'd be threatening might just push their own button and prematurely bring on the apocalypse, you wouldn't dare.
Ahmadinejad positions himself as a West-hating, antisemitic fundamentalist Muslim with ties to terrorism, inciting the destruction of all his enemies because he knows that, holding nuclear weapons, that makes him untouchable. In the end, both he and the US know very well that nuclear weapons are not actually made to be deployed, but to sway the balance of power. As long as both he and the States have them, military conflict must be off the table.
I'm convinced that the President of Iran acts out of deep love for his people, his country and his beliefs, so he has very cleverly made it impossible to know for sure whether or not he'd actually blow the planet out of orbit just to defend them.
While the President of Iran does spew some pretty abhorrent antisemitic rhetoric, it seems to me that he's also pretty bright, and because I don't think it's always wise to throw the baby out with the bathwater, I would like us to consider for a moment: if I knew that my country was next in line for possible invasion by the world's strongest country, possibly the smartest thing I could do would be to escalate my production of nuclear materials, being as forthright about it as possible, so that there can be no mistaking by anyone that I do have nukes and I have no intention of dismantling them. By comparison, Iraq clearly did not have nuclear weapons at the time the US invaded (though this was their trumped-up premise for invasion), and that was a bloody (literally) cakewalk for the States.
Hand-in-hand with brandishing my weapons, I would also work very hard to be seen as unhinged and dangerous. See, you might threaten a country who had nukes if you thought it would lead to negotiation - as it did with the Russians - thereby ultimately getting what you wanted in the first place, but if you worry that the person you'd be threatening might just push their own button and prematurely bring on the apocalypse, you wouldn't dare.
Ahmadinejad positions himself as a West-hating, antisemitic fundamentalist Muslim with ties to terrorism, inciting the destruction of all his enemies because he knows that, holding nuclear weapons, that makes him untouchable. In the end, both he and the US know very well that nuclear weapons are not actually made to be deployed, but to sway the balance of power. As long as both he and the States have them, military conflict must be off the table.
I'm convinced that the President of Iran acts out of deep love for his people, his country and his beliefs, so he has very cleverly made it impossible to know for sure whether or not he'd actually blow the planet out of orbit just to defend them.
posted by BT at 6:43 AM
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